The Substitute/Theories

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Theories about The Substitute

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Theories may be removed if ...

Stated as questions or possibilities (avoid question marks, "Maybe", "I think", etc). More appropriate for another article. Illogical or previously disproven. Proven by canon source, and moved to main article. Speculative and lacking any evidence to support arguments. Responding to another theory (use discussion page instead). This does not include responses that can stand alone as its own theory. Usage of an indented bullet does not imply the statement is a response. See the Lostpedia theory policy for more details.

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The bomb never went off/Island is under water because of another event

• The fact that Ben is alive and a teacher in the parallel timeline implies that the reason the island is under water is not the explosion of the hydrogen bomb because at the time of the incident Ben was at the temple being healed by the Others and he never left the island on the submarine like all the other kids such as Charlotte. Therefore, if the bomb had went off and the island is under water because of it, everyone on the island should have died including Ben and the Others.
• The bomb did go off, but because of the way it interacted with the pocket of energy under the swan station, it did not have the same result as a normal thermonuclear blast. They neutralized each other, and eliminated that energy. Without that energy, many of the special effects of the island ceased, and DHARMA eventually left the island (or were forced off the island due to whatever sunk the island at a later date.
  • When the bomb detonated, it changed the sequence of events in time, thus creating an alternate timeline. All people involved in Timeline A are still present on the island, and from that point on Timeline B was created.
    • Currently, we have no information as to what happened in 'timeline B' or as the producers call it the flash sideways, on the island between 1977-2004. All that is known is that in the flash sideways, Daniel's plan seems to have worked, the detonation caused 815 to never crash, and that sometime in that span of 27 years, the island came to be underwater.
      • The re-runs of last week episodes calls the 'timeline B' the flash sideways in the green captions at the bottom. It also did say that the events of timeline B are what would have happened if the crash would have never happened.
• Cuse indicated in an article in last week's TV Guide that the island is under water because of the explosion.
• The bomb did explode, but it exploded in the 1950s because Faraday was not there to tell the Others what to do with it. The island slowly sank, so while DHARMA was there (as evidenced by sunken barracks & the shark), they didn't stay very long; Ben was either never brought there or evacuated at some point.

A Higher Power ?

• When Locke chases the boy and he said that he must follow the rules and that he cant kill him.. There is a higher power that is governing the island.. it has more authority than Jacob has.. perhaps the whispers have something to do with who or what it is.
  • The whispers are the others not the little boy. I do agree that the little boy is a higher power. Perhaps the force that is "trapping" Locke on the island. He needs a replacement before he can leave.
    • I disagree about the whispers, they showed up whenever the smoke monster assumed or was planning (we might guess) to assume the image of someone from a character's past. I think they are the representation of him absorbing memories from a character.
      • The whispers appeared in the Temple while The Others were abducting Jack, Sayid, Hurley, Jin and Kate. The Smoke Monster was still under the statue at that time.
      • The whispers showed up when Cindy went missing on the trip from the tailies camp to the losties camp. Cindy later showed up at The Hydra and The Temple with no indication that she experienced the smoke monster en route.
      • The Whisper transcripts indicate conversations amongst themselves several times. The whispers were not heard every time the smoke monster appeared or was assuming an identity.
        • Maybe not, but don't forget we did learn today that the monster can teleport. Also, Cindy could have been "claimed" to be cured later, or had her disappearance involve the smoke monster in some other way, we just don't know.

Young Boy

• Aaron will one day go back in time and become Jacob. The young boy is at a point in between.
• Aaron, grown up.
• Jacob as a young boy (perhaps as MiB remembers him from their youth)
• Jacob reborn, as if like a pheonix."It has a 500 to 1,000 year life-cycle, near the end of which it builds itself a nest of twigs that then ignites; both nest and bird burn fiercely and are reduced to ashes, from which a new, young phoenix or phoenix egg arises, reborn anew to live again."
• Jacob and MiB are 1st cousins. More specifically, (building off a theory above) Jacob IS Aaron as an adult, and MiB IS the son of Jack (and perhaps Kate?). This is a stretch at this point, but it would tie things together very interestingly.
• Maybe Sawyer CAN see the boy because his name is listed in the cave.
  • ...or because he is the chosen one

The names in the cave

Don't know if this is the place for it, but since lostpedia is a collaborative effort, anyone want to help figuring out all the names in the cave? Here's what I have so far:

Oceanic

Alive

• 8 – Reyes
• 15 – Ford
• 16 – Jarrah
• 23 – Shephard
• 42 – Kwon (Jin or Sun? Both?)
• 313 – Littleton (Claire? Aaron?)

Dead

• 195 – Pace
• 4 – Locke
• 90 – Troup

Others

• 10 – Mattingley
• 317 – Cunningham
• 117 – Linus (Roger? Emily? Ben?)
• 55 ? – Burke

Dharma

• ??? – Goodspeed (Horace? Olivia? Ethan?)
• 134 ? – Chang

French Team

• ? – Lacombe

Freighter

• 171 ? – Straume

US Army

• 233 – Jones

Undetermined

• 222 – O’Toole
• 291 – Domingo
• 346 – Grant

Partial

• 33 – XW?
• 20 – Rouf…
• 62 – …?
• …? – …ersen
• 285 – Jen…
• 49 – …chan
• 30 – …la
• 195 – …?
• ?? – Reyno(lds?)
• 27? – …?
• 1? – Sullivan
• …? – …zki
• 337 – Martin…
• 119 – Almeida

• • Based on the above, the numbers could correspond to an order of preference, with Locke unsurprisingly being very high up. The top 3 could include names such as Widmore, Alpert, Littleton or Lloyd.

In addition, I'd like to add that in traditional Chaldean numerology:

• 4 - represents Uranus, the father of Saturn. He disrupts and changes the status quo. He breaks down old belief systems and estabhes new ones.
• 15 - represents the Magician. It symbolizes the power to rule, but more importantly, when appearing with the number 4 or 8, is symoblizes dark magic. In that case it represents the misuse of power through black magic, hypnosis, and mental suggestion to victimize others.lis
• 16 - represents the Shattered Citadel or Falling Tower. The story represented by the number is that of a prince who goes to the top of the tower under false pretenses. There he is struck by lightning and falls to his death.
• 23 - represents synchronicity. With 23 there are no coincidences. It is an extremely fortunate number in most cases because it represents how the universe uses interconnection to fulfill its purposes.
• 42 - represents Love, Money, and Creativity. It is another fortunate number that promises prosperous gains in all three areas.

Jacob's People are Wrong/MIB is right

• At this point Jacob's people (the temple people/Ilana's group) are somewhat misinformed about the "game" that is going on.
  • Reasoning (Ajira group): The group of Ajira passengers believe that MIB can only take the form of Locke at this point but that is been debunked already. Since Locke's arrival back to the island the MIB has already taken the form of Alex below the temple to scare Ben into believing MIB was Locke and needed to obey him, as well as in this episode where it is seen as its smokey self in the reflection in the window.
    • It may be that now that Jacob is dead the MIB is stuck as whoever he was, not just that he took the form of Locke. Nothing changed when he took the form of Locke, but things definitely changed once Jacob was killed. It is interesting that he can still take the form of the Black Smoke though. Also of note, he seemed to genuinely not know things about Sawyer while normally he would have the power to know almost everything about any person he encountered.
  • Reasoning (Temple Group): Richard (who, though not at the temple, does belong there) said that he has never seen anyone come back from the dead, yet when Sayid is awaken Dogen has an answer for this already. What is happening to Sayid is not going to be something the temple people have seen before.
• MIB has been hurt for many years over what Jacob has done to him. He wants this to end, and he wants it to end well for everyone. Jacob has been 'brainwashing' people, and toying with them to make them believe what he wants. The things MIB is saying to Sawyer is 100% true because he has no need to lie at this point.

The Numbers/Names on the wall

• I THINK I KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON! If you have followed the Lost ARG's in between season, you know that THE NUMBERS are the VALENZETTI EQUATION. The Valenzetti Equation was discovered by a mathematician named Valenzetti, that accurately predicts the date in which humanity will extinguish itself. In Season's 4 & 5, Daniel Faraday talks a lot of "equations" "variables" and "constants". He says that the Variables are people, ("them" to be more accurately). And now we see The Numbers coinciding with different characters names sketched across a cave wall belonging to Jacob. This is not coincidence. I think we are going to see the Numbers begin to change.

• I think that Kwon refers to Jin, seeing as how he traveled in time, where as Sun did not. Also, did anyone notice Kate's name does not appear? I think that's something they did on purpose just to keep us guessing, and we'll see she appears on the list in a later episode.

• It is Jin also because he "Chose" to become the candidate. When Jin "sacrificed" himself to stay on the island by giving Locke his wedding ring and tell him not to bring Sun back to the island. This choice made him the candidate.

• These names seem like evidence of some sort of trial by error system. If MiB was telling the truth that Jacob was the one to write those names, then it seems like he has been there for a LONG LONG time pulling different combinations of people at different times to the island in order to secure some unknown end to this cycle in which they are trapped.
  • The trial and error would fall in line with only 6 of the numbers being broadcast on repeat for 16+ years. Jacob seemingly has all the time in the world to wait, so brining a few at a time would allow him to greater control the circumstances that unfold.
  • If this is the case, one could say he is "weaving together different possible combinations of individuals into his tapestry until he finally gets the right combination and the cycle can end.
  • MiB's plan is to get all of the remaining names to either die or be converted to his side. So far, he has prompted Ben to kill Locke, Sayid got shot and sure seems to be 'claimed' by MiB's side of darkness, and he is making a strong sales pitch to Sawyer. If this is the case... then the only names shown to be potential candidates are Jack, Hurley, and Kwon.
  • Also, remember Bram and Ilana discussed the possibility of Frank Lapidus being 'a candidate' - we may have simply not been shown his name... or perhaps he will become a 'substitute/proxy' for one of the essential crossed off names like Locke, Sayid, or Sawyer (to be converted/claimed in the future?)

MIB

• When Christian was on the island it was actually MIB, like he is Locke now.
  • I partially disagree. Richard said once MiB took the form of Locke, he was stuck in that state. So that might mean that Christan is someone else or MiB can only be one person at a time.
    • Ilana said that, not Richard.
• MiB is stuck in Locke's body because that's the body he's in when the real Locke is buried. This would mean he can be in any body he wants unless that body is buried while he occupies it; after that point, he's stuck.
  • • There is overwhelming evidence MIB/Esau was Christian. Esau has only taken the form of dead bodies on the Island. Going backwards, he took Locke's form, Alex's, Yemi's, and thus Christian's. We have confirmed from the producers that Esau is Locke and Yemi. It was pretty obvious that Alex was Esau as well. Given that Christian also falls into the "dead body on the island that suddenly mysteriously appears alive" category, it's a safe bet. Plus he only started appearing in Jacob's Cabin after the ash circle was broken. As far as being stuck, it may be because Jacob is dead now.

Alternate Timeline

• The alternate timeline being shown is how everyone's lives would have played out without any influence from Jacob.
  • When you look at backstories such as Locke's, when Jacob's only interaction with him was to save his life, this theory does not make much sense.
    • In the alternate timeline that event never occured. Locke became paralyzed in a different way in this timeline. IF that event had still happened he would hate his father and he would not be mentioned as a possible guest to an impromptu wedding.
      • Locke's relationship with his father must be completely different, or else he wouldn't be with Helen.
        • Many of the things that Jacob did were before the timeline was reset. I.e. Giving Sawyer the pen and buying the lunchbox for Kate. So how could something they did in 1977 change something that happened before that?

Hurley's Luck

• When John tried to lower his wheelchair lift down, it jammed before even touching Hurley's car. Hurley is a genuine lucky man in the alternate timeline.
  • Alternatively it could also have been showing how bad Locke's luck is. Locke falls to his lawn in the beginning, when the sprinklers turn on at the perfect moment. He is fired from his job by a person he despises after being turned away from Walkabout which he cares deeply about. Then he is blocked out of his car by a Hummer. He wants badly to scratch the "mystery person's" car but his lift fails only inches away.

"Candidates"

• Sawyer is a candidate for something special. This is why he saw the young child in the jungle. Now that Jacob has been removed the available Candidates will assume the roll of protector of the island and with it will come some of the bizarre side effects.

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