Follow the Leader/Theories

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Theories about Follow the Leader

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Theories may be removed if ...

Stated as questions or possibilities (avoid question marks, "Maybe", "I think", etc). More appropriate for another article. Illogical or previously disproven. Proven by canon source, and moved to main article. Speculative and lacking any evidence to support arguments. Responding to another theory (use discussion page instead). This does not include responses that can stand alone as its own theory. Usage of an indented bullet does not imply the statement is a response. See the Lostpedia theory policy for more details.

Eloise & Faraday's Journal

• Faraday's notebook also contains notes on his own life. This is the source of everything Eloise knows, how she is able to predict the future and the reason she is not able to predict anything beyond 2008. She knows about Jack having to go back to the island from Jack himself.
  • Eloise will try to save her son many times but will come to realize she can't and he must fulfill his destiny.
• Younger Eloise sees her handwriting in the front of Daniel's Journal, but as Jack says, she hasn't written it yet. But now she knows she will do it as some point. When later in life it does become clear that she is to give him the Journal, she knows that she is also writing the note to herself (to see in the past), stating that what she did was for Love. Nothing short of that "love" would steal your resolve to do what your dying son wanted, especially if you've shot and killed him, yet also are pregnant with him a the same time.
• Young Ellie Hawking believes (hopes) the past can be changed, while old Eloise Hawking sent her son to the island, knowing he would be killed. Jack and Sayid will try to change the past, but fail horribly, or even make the Incident happen. Ellie will see this and realize you can't change the past.

Richard: "I saw them die."

• From Richard's standpoint in 2008, he saw them "die" during the Incident (which happened, so it won't be prevented with an H-bomb or any other means). What he really saw was the Incident happen, and the '77s disappear. The Incident actually provides the '77s with the means to time jump one last time and return to "present day." Richard will be very surprised when he finds that they survived and were transported forward to their correct time period.
  • Richard is gonna see a lot of people die because of the Incident but he's not gonna see all losties die. When John and Ben turned the wheel they released some kind of energy which caused specific people to jump in time(probably chosen by the Island). When the Incident occurs, a similar kind of energy will be released and considering the H-Bomb did not explode, that energy will send Losties to another time.
• They fail to stop the incident but are transported to the future, so that Richard thinks that they die, but they actually don't.

• Richard could have been lying. While we know of no reason for him to lie about something like that, there could be an important reason (perahps preventing some kind of time paradox, preserving a time-line, or just keeping the losties safe) for keeping them all off the radar for a while.
• Richard may have seen the explosion, with O6 being within the blast radius. That gives him more than enough ground to believe they have all perished. Ellie and Richard both mentioned that the time-travelers simply "vanish" in space. O6 will be saved in the very last second during the blast by the last time-travel witnessed on the show.

• Richard tells Jack and Sayid that Eloise will be angry when she wakes up after being knocked unconscious by him, but that being angry is better than being dead, in The Incident, Parts 1 & 2. This may indicate that he strongly believes that they will all die, and that something will happen at the Swan to confirm his suspicions. This may have resulted in him believing that he "saw them all die".

Ben and Richard

• Richard, like Ben, has been told to follow the leader; for just a longer time than any of us might imagine. It is because of this duration, that he is a little less likely to react like Ben does to others controlling the situation. Richard just knows that (and/or has tried) and knows the outcome never changes.

Locke created his own destiny

See John Locke/Theories.

The Leader

For debate on who the episode title is referring too, please see Talk:Follow the Leader.

What's going on with Locke

Also see The Monster/Theories, Jacob's nemesis/Theories, and John Locke/Theories

• Locke has gone through the same process that Christian Shepherd went through when he arrived on the island in a coffin. He was resurected, and indwelt by an entity. Christian's body was taken by Jacob. John Locke's body was taken by another entity... similar to Jacob, but yet not Jacob. Per the events of "The Incident, Part 1", that entity is Jacob's nemesis.
• The Monster (working for Jacob's nemesis) is possessing Locke's dead body. Locke truly is dead. Evidence....
  • Directly before Ben was judged by Cerberus, Locke disappeared. If Smokey was going to judge Ben, he'd have to abandon Locke's shell first. He then proceeded to judge Ben. Interestingly, the Monster uses the apparition of Alex to warn Ben to not try to kill Locke again and to obey his every command. Why? Because the Monster need's Locke's now reanimated body to get to Jacob, and he needs Ben to follow "Locke's" orders to fulfill killing Jacob.
  • The Monster needs Locke's body to cross the circle of ash around Jacob's cabin, because the ash keeps the Monster out, just like the sonar fence keeps it out of the barracks.
    • The body that the Monster posses' must have already been dead before arriving on the Island to be possessed. Christian, Yemi, and Locke were all dead prior to arriving on the Island, and it seems all three have been possessed by the same or similar entity. Jacob got to Christian's body before the Monster did, hence why Christian speaks for Jacob- it allows for Jacob to have some influence outside of the ash circle.
    • The monster could conceivably get past the ash with any body, but it needs John's body because John, being the leader, is the only one who can make Richard take him to the cabin, which is always moving. That is why he needs Richard to show him where it is.

The Hydrogen Bomb

• The explosion will delay the Incident, allowing the Swan will still be built based on Radzinsky's orders. The reason the Incident will still occur is course correction.
• The bomb never detonates, yet is still deemed dangerous, and ends up encased in the cement wall Sayid refers to in the Swan. This is what detonates when Desmond turns the fail-safe at a later date.
• Without the bomb, the 'Incident', would have wiped the island out. The bomb will stop the Incident from being worse.... but it will still be bad. The O6 will be sent back to 2008, the others will be infertile and the Swan will be built, etc.
• Jack will indeed blow up the hydrogen bomb, however, nothing will have changed in the future as it was always meant to happen - course correction will kick in and flash the Losties back to their original time line (2007), and send Eloise off the island.
• According to the Swan orientation film, The Incident involves the release of a huge amount of energy. The hydrogen bomb is the source of this energy.
• LOST: Via Domus (semi-canon), the video game, also allows the character go into The Incident Room and apparently it was the makers of LOST that actually gave outlining plans of what the room was to be like and there isn't a bomb in there.
• Even if Jughead is detonated it will negate the energy of the island as Faraday explained, so there won't be any catastrophic event, it just causes a new electro-magnetic being to be created namely Smokey. As far as I can remember Smokey never appeared before 1977, its oldest appearence is when it first met young Danielle and her French buddies, and people who lives inside hatch is afraid of a sickness which is probably the same sickness Danielle's friends got when they went under the temple following Black Smoke. So, Black Smoke may be the result of the incident.
  • We haven't been physicaly shown the smoke monster before the year 1977 on the show, but it has existed as far back as ancient times on the island. The evidence is the cerberus vents, and the pool in the temple suggests that it was created to manipulate/summon the smoke monster. There are also heiroglyphics that portray the smoke monster interacting with an Egyptian diety.

You can't change the past

• The reason why you can't change the past is because it already happened exactly that way. Whatever the Losties do in 1977, it already happened in 1977 before they even started time traveling. In other words, some of these people (like Daniel) technically existed before they were physically born, but from Daniel's own point of view, he "started" life from birth, and 1977 came after 2007 which is why he referred to it as the present and "anyone could die". But from everyone else's point of view (like Eloise and Richard) the 30 year old Daniel came before the physically born Daniel. The reason why whatever they do, even with the possession of knowledge from 2007, is because their actions are "on rails" (guided by their own "destiny") so that no matter what actions they take, it had already happened that way "in the past", even before Ben ever dislodged the Wheel. Daniel's actual date of death is in 1977, the fact that he traveled back in time doesn't "change" Daniel's time of death, it actually ENABLES it to happen. On the Island in 2004 at that very moment in time when they first crash on the island, Daniel's body is already buried somewhere for 27 years because it already happened that way to begin with (therefore, traveling back in time doesnt have any effect on the present or future because none of the actions they do in 1977 is deviating from what they have always done 30 years ago). In a future episode we are likely going to see the identity of Adam and Eve in the caves and it will be the bodies of Losties.
  • There is only 1 time line, and the events happening in 1977 dont change the current day (with Locke). In 1977, to the Losties it is the present day, just like Daniel explained, but for us the viewer we are watching the past exactly as it happened 30 years ago (there is no alternate reality). When the story jumps to 2007, the timeline is actually 30 years into the future (same timeline) and the events that Jack/Sayid/Kate etc are experiencing has already happened.
    • Also, the screenshot saying "30 years later/earlier", is further proof that there are not numerous timelines!
• Jack will succeed in his mission, alter the timeline, and the last scene of the finale will be O815 landing in L.A., with a music-layered slow motion shot of the Losties getting off the plane, including a drug-addicted Charlie, guilt-ridden Boone and Shannon, Ana Lucia, Eko, Jack, prisoner Kate, etc, and wheel-chaired Locke - the only one who retains memory of the other timeline, and who must restore it.
• Because there are two stories running concurrently that span the two time lines it would seem unlikely that the events in one would negate what is happening in the other. It would be pointless to introduce the story of John trying to kill Jacob if Jack is only going to detonate the bomb and alter the future events meaning that John never crashes on the island. Whether Jack is successful at detonating the bomb in 1977 will not impact the future events and the current path John is on, which requires the crash of the Oceanic flight.
• Changing the chain of events that causes Oceanic 815 to crash on the island is impossible given the paradox that would cause. If they don't crash on the island and ultimately go back to 1977, then they would never be there to change the course of events as they happened. Same theory that you can't go back in time and kill your father. I don't buy that Faraday, being as smart as he is, would even think this was possible. What happened, happened and it will happen as it has always happened.
• We never heard what Faraday told little Charlotte. Going back to the old adage, a writer will not present a gun on a wall if that gun is not going to be used later in the story, we are going to find out that Daniel told Charlotte something different than not to come back to the island because it is death, or else we would have heard what he said to her in the earlier scene. This is his exercise in being a variable. Sawyer and/or Juliet will find out that Faraday told her something different than the older/dead Charlotte remembered. This will lead to Juliet/Sawyer/Kate realizing that they can also be variables and that maybe they can prevent The Incident/Purge/Whatever.
• There is a "time loop" and it is started by one event. Daniel thought the Incident was that event, but it wasn't. Those stuck in 1977 will now have to find out what it is and that is how they will change their future.
• There are not two distinct stories, or 2 distinct timelines. What we see in 1977 is a type of a flashback. Like previous flashbacks it shows what happened before. The primary story takes place in 2008 where Locke is going to kill Jacob. With this in mind even though some Losties are in the past, they do not affect what goes on in the 2007. The story in the year 1977 is a flashback in the whole meaning of the word, the only difference is that flashbacks now show what happened with different characters in 1977. Having said that, the detonation of the Jughead (if it does indeed detonate) will not change the fact that Locke is going to kill Jacob in 2007. Otherwise, we would be introduced to the "alternate reality" right after Ben turned the wheel, where the timetravel started. The 1977er's will start the chain of events that cause them to crash in 2004 simply because we saw them crashing already. If they changed the course of events we would not see them crashing, because they would've changed it in 1977. The order of things mean a lot, and 77 happened before 2004 crash, not after.
• Remember, the on-island events in 2008 are happening to the survivors of Ajira 316, not Oceanic 815. If Faraday is correct, Oceanic 815 could have touched down in Los Angeles as planned. That does nothing to prevent two of those same passengers from taking another flight to Guam four years later. Only their reasons for doing so would have changed. If Jack, et al change time, and Locke remembers the alternate timeline, that explains him taking flight 316. This is possible due to his island connection. Sun's reasoning, however, remains problematic. She could remember the alterenate timeline and remember falling back in love with her husband on the island. Alternately, it could have something to do with her original intention to leave Jin at the airport and never board 815.

The Two Sides in the War

• The war has already begun. Christian's coffin arrived, he was resurrected by the Island, and he has trapped Jacob in his cabin using a ring of ash. Jacob is trapped and weakened, and is why John heard him say "Help me."
• One side is the descendants of the Black Rock, including the the Hostiles and including Richard Alpert. They've ruled the island since the Black Rock arrived there in the 1800's.
• Ben and Charles actually are on the same side. Their battles have simply been for control of leadership of the Others. As far as the coming war goes, they are both on the side of the Others.
• Charles is playing a similar role to Ellie here. He is trying to get them to go back to the island because he knows they will go back in time and be part of the war in 1977 between the Hostiles and DHARMA. The war has always been going on, but a big battle is coming (which takes place around the Incident), and he knows from his own past that they were part of it.
• Locke is purposely keeping all the Others together, which will play in the coming war with the 'Shadow of the Statue' group. He is taking all of the Others to see Jacob as they will be needed in the war that will start soon.
• Bram and Ilana work for the economist, who is at "war" with Widmore over the island. This war will become physical after the Incident or beginning with the Incident. Widmore and Eloise on one side with Ben, Locke and R.Alpert caught in the middle. The economist via Bram & Ilana on the bad side.

No Statue = No Children

• The statue is Taweret, the goddess of fertility, and is still standing in 1977. The Incident will cause it to crash, and afterward all Island inhabitants (Hostiles and possibly remaining DHARMA) will be unable to have children.
  • Counter-evidence - when Sawyer and the left-behinds experience the last time flash that puts them in 1974, they were looking at the statue prior to the flash, but once they arrive in 1974, they specifically note that the statue is not there anymore. We know for a fact the statue is not standing by 1974 and on.
  • The presence of a leaking warhead under the DHARMA barracks, the primary home of islanders since the time of the Purge onward, causes infertility. This explains why outsiders, Claire and Sun, were able to successfully give birth and conceive.
    • The Others know about the bomb, so that wouldn't be a mystery to them. Also, the problem is not that people can't conceive, but that all women who get pregnant die before they can give birth. This is not a mystery explainable by mere nuclear radiation. The infertility is connected to the Incident, but the Incident is clearly more than the detonation of a nuclear warhead.

What Ilana and Bram are Doing

• They are attempting to do something with the bomb, but they don't know that it has already been detonated in 1977 (or will be). They are definitely not going to affect the past in the future; it is conceivable that they could affect the future from the past, but I don't think this is going to happen.

Kate

• Kate does not want time to change because if the plane does not crash she will go to jail. The very reason she was on the plane was to be transported back to the US by the marshall. Just because 2007 Kate is now in 1977, doesn't mean 2004 Kate hasn't already committed those crimes.
  • Kate insists to Jack that not everything that happened on the island was bad. She is concerned with the idea of suddenly landing in LAX never having known Jack, Sawyer, Hurley, Claire, and all the rest.
  • She also believes that she is a better person now, as compared with before the island. She has learned and grown in addition to making new friends and being a mother for a short time. She doesn't want that to change.
  • Kate doesn't care; it should be obvious by now that she has extremely selfish tendencies. Even when she saved Ben it was more for her than him, because she had abandoned Aaron and wanted to make up for it.
• We have seen the end of Jack & Kate as a couple. When Jack replies that the bad experiences outweigh the good, he's essentially rejecting his love for Kate, saying that it wasn't worth all the hardship that came along with it. For Kate, this hurt.
• Kate has several motivations for doing this. The most obvious is Jack and Sawyer and the thought that she would have never met them if this were to occur. Another is that she came back to the Island to "find" Claire and bring her back, like she promised Claire's mother. Lastly, she realizes that if this chain events erases the past, she will have never met Aaron and never had him.

Ship in a Bottle

Black Rock?

Painting of Black Rock

Black Rock

• We see some lingering shots of Richard finishing a Ship is a Bottle, this can mean many things.
  • Strong indicator that Richard is from the Black Rock. Richard is practicing a skill taught to him from a crew member of the Black Rock.
  • When you live for a very long time, you work on projects that take time and patience. He is familiar with the Black Rock as it is on the island.
  • This is meant to mislead the viewers into thinking it's evidence of him being from the BR.
• The ship in the bottle is symbolic of the episode and the whole story. There are stories within stories, happening at the same time, with no knowledge of each other.
• This is an allusion to a fact that the Black Rock appeared on the Island the same way the ship appears inside the bottle. It was artificially put there.

The Hostiles' "hostility"

• From season one we've wondered why the Others have been so hostile in their methods against the Survivors. If Richard remembers their aggressive nature in the seventies, when Ethan and Goodwin report back with their names and faces, then they believe they will be hostile to them - it seems to be in their nature. Ironically this will cause the survivors' hostile nature to them in seventies in the first place. So the whole aggressive tension between the islanders has been an accident of time. DHARMA and the Hostiles had a truce and Horace and Richard were even amiable (as both were non-violent passive-aggressors). It was Radzinky's foolishness and Widmore's aggressiveness that will initiate that war.
  • The Others mission is to protect the island. This is the reason why they are overreacting (aka: hostile) when another people (US Army, D.I., Losties...) set foot on the island.