Dr. Linus/Theories

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Theories about Dr. Linus

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Stated as questions or possibilities (avoid question marks, "Maybe", "I think", etc). More appropriate for another article. Illogical or previously disproven. Proven by canon source, and moved to main article. Speculative and lacking any evidence to support arguments. Responding to another theory (use discussion page instead). This does not include responses that can stand alone as its own theory. Usage of an indented bullet does not imply the statement is a response. See the Lostpedia theory policy for more details.

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Gifted people (and Jacob and MIB) can only be killed when other Gifted people Choose to kill them

• Ben was able to kill Jacob because, as Jacob told him, he had the choice to do kill him or not.
  • Counter Argument: Ben did not have a choice either. MIB tricked him into it so he was not going to do anything against what the MIB said
    • But Jacob insisted that Ben had a choise whether to kill him or not, he even thought he wouldn't kill him until the very end.
• Sayid wasn't able to kill MIB because he didn't really choose to kill him, he was just doing what Dogen told him to do.
  • How is it different from Ben doing what MIB told him to do?
• Jack could choose to give Sayid the poison pill, that was what Dogen wanted.
• When Ben killed Keamy, he chose to kill him, and by doing so the whole crew from the Kahana, that is why Michael died but Jin didn't.
• The Man in Black seems to have special rules in this case. Why he couldn't kill Jacob even if he wanted, he (as the black smoke) killed many people, but before analyzed them to see if their death would serve of anything.
  • Jacob is a proponent of Fate; whatever happens was meant to happen. While they have a choice to kill one another, they were fated to not do so. Jack could have chosen to leave the Black Rock and let Richard die, but he was fated to stay behind. Jack could have given Sayid the poison pill, but he was fated to question Dogen about it. While one appears to have a choice, the fact that they do not make one choice is something that is fated.
    • We do NOT know that Jacob is a proponent of Fate. His repeated instructions to Ben, candidates, and others implies he is a proponent of Free Will with his emphasis on "choice" and "progress" with the MIB. If MIB represents Fate i.e. "it all ends the same..." and Jacob represents Free Will, than perhaps Jacob can be killed when one chooses to kill him like Ben but MIB can only be killed when one is destined...This would explain why Dogen insist that Sayid not talk to MiB before killing him.
• Maybe the MIB has been in charge of The Others all along while Jacob is left to just nudge them along their way. I mean, Widmore and killing babies? Who does that unless they’re under the influence of pure evil? Ben and how he treated the 815’ers? Sadistic and manipulative, just like MIB would have him be. Also, the MIB said he hated Jacob and wanted to kill him for bringing people to the island. This may have been because MIB has to work on these newbies to get them to kill themselves off when MIB would rather sit on the beach and drink beer. Maybe now the balance is shifting from MIB-worldview to Jacob-worldview and MIB is doing everything he can to stop it.

Richard is a candidate

• All the candidates we know so far have become candidates by the act of Jacob touching them. Richard is also touched by Jacob. Therefore, Richard is a candidate.
  • Jacob has touched candidates but his touch did not necessarily make them candidates. In fact, it appears that he was watching some of them as candidates prior to his visits.
    • Jacob touches candidates at different times of their lives e.g. Kate was touched when she was a child, Jack, before the crash, and Sayid, after the crash. It is only reasonable to assume that Jacob will touch the candidates at some point in time. So watching them before his visits does not contradicts the theory. And considering the second argument of agelessness, the candidates should be touched eventually. So if Richard was touched, it is very likely because he was a candidate (however not necessarily).
      • Sayid was touched by Jacob as a child after he killed the chicken for his brother, Omar.
        • We only know that Sayid was touched by Jacob as AN ADULT crossing the street with Nadia.
• A candidate will replace Jacob so he/she needs to be ageless (similar to Jacob himself) to take care of the island until another replacement is found. Therefore, a candidate becomes ageless by the touch of current caretaker (now Jacob). These all point to Richard being a candidate.
  • Being touched by Jacob doesn't necessarily mean you'll stop aging - Kate and Sawyer have aged dramatically since Jacob touched them.
    • It's possible a gifted person only stops aging when on the island.
    • It wouldn't make sense for Sawyer/Kate to stop aging at a young age. If they are meant to be ageless in order to take over for Jacob, who would follow a child?
• Jacob's touch only creates a link between that person that he touched and the island, ensuring that they will be at the island to fulfill some purpose.
• There is nothing to indicate that being touched by Jacob makes you a candidate, merely that it brings you to the island. Jacob may have a need for some people to come to the island to serve him, but not to replace him, such as Richard.
• Richard is not on the list of candidates we have seen so far.
• Illana said there are only 6 candidates left, Richard isn't one of them.

Charles Widmore is the new MIB

If Jacob needs a replacement, then surely the Man In Black also does. Widmore seems like a sufficiently evil candidate for the position.

How Charles Widmore found the island

• Charles Widmore found the island by using the Black Rock ledger he purchased as seen in the episode "The Constant".
  • Illogical - the Island has been moved at least once since the Black Rock's time.
  • He was seen purchasing that in 1996. Why wouldn't he have used that in getting to the island in 2004?
• Charles Widmore found the island with the help of Eloise or Jacob, or both.
• Charles Widmore found the island using his knowledge of its properties and his knowledge that a hydrogen fueled nuclear weapon was at one time buried on the island.
• He used the Lamp Post.
• In his dealings with Sun, he arranged for her to bring some sort of GPS tracking system to the island.
• Widmore is actually Wallace. Widmore is not his real last name.
• Widmore could only find the island now because Jacob is dead and the island is left vulnerable.
• Jacob brought him. Widmore was the last person to be summoned by Jacob before he died and that Jacob told Hugo that someone needed to find the island in the episode "Lighthouse."
• He used Faraday's journal, the one Eloise would've had with everything on it. It has calculations to find the bearing that gets you to the island.
• He had someone reactivate The Numbers transmission at the radio tower, hence why the Numbers were overheard when Ajira Flight 316 crashed. He then followed the transmission to their source.
• He received information in "the nightmares".
• Widmore has Desmond on his submarine to increase his odds of finding the island, à la Eloise's warning "the island isn't through with you yet."
• Charles Widmore found the island through MIB. We all know MIB is good at finding loopholes, and since Widmore was banned from the island, maybe it's another loophole from MIB that allows him to come back.
• Before getting on the Ajira flight, Ben telephoned Widmore and told him that he was returning to the Island. When the plane crashed/disappeared, it wouldn't have been too difficult with Widmore's money and resources to check if Ben was on the flight. There has been no mention of the plane losing radio contact or being off course, and Eloise said that the flight path went directly over the Island. Therefore where the plane crashed is where the Island is.
• Charles Widmore was able to find the island, because the Lighthouse had been destroyed by Jack. The Lighthouse, while being able to guide people to the island, also made it so that only the candidate written down could initially be brought to the island. Without the Lighthouse, anybody could get to the island if they knew where to look.
• Widmore found the island because Jacob directed him to it because Jacob wants widmore to help him stop MIB and the war that comes with him. Widmore already made reference to this when he said "the wrong side is going to win" in The Life and Death of Jeremy Benthem.
  • (Counter) When Bram kidnapped Miles, he told him that if he works for Widmore, then he'll be working for the wrong side. So my guess is that Widmore is not allies with Jacob.

The Submarine

• MIB somehow contacted Widmore and now that Jacob is dead, he was able to direct Widmore back to the island. He has offered Widmore control over the island, just as he offered Ben a similar deal.
  • Widmore may have been an ally to MIB at the time he was recruiting Miles, Michael Faraday and others for the Kahana expedition. When Miles was kidnapped, Bram told him not to join the wrong side of the war (Some Like it Hoth).

• MIB intends to use the submarine to leave the island. Ultimately Jack will have to blow up the submarine, inverting the situation when Locke blew up the Galaga in Season 3.
  • There is no concrete proof that Locke blew up the Galaga in Season 3 however.
    • Given the context of the episode there remains little doubt that the Galaga was destroyed. But the question remains if the submarine will indeed be the escape vehicle for the Man in Black or merely a means of transportation from the main Island to Hydra Island

Those touched by Jacob become immortal while on the Island

• None of the 6 candidates have changed their appearance while on the island and Hurley is a prime example of this. Kate and Sawyer being touched as kids could just mean that the candidates age in the outside world, but won't on the island.
  • Jin survived the Kahana explosion (There's No Place Like Home, Part 3, The Little Prince)
  • John Locke was stopped from hanging himself, only to be killed by Ben
    • This could be used to argue that only those touched by Jacob can be killed only by each other
  • Michael couldn't kill himself after he left the island. Perhaps he was touched by Jacob. If so, perhaps he survived the explosion of the Kahana, too.
    • Christian appeared before the explosion and told Michael he could leave now.
  • Sawyer and Jin grew out their hair considerably since the pilot episode. So their appearance has changed on the island.
    • Richard's hair was much longer when he first met Ben in the jungle, so apparently superficial changes like hair styles don't count.
  • Hurley wasn't even touched until he got off the island.
• The people touched by Jacob can't die unless they have completed their 'work' on the island. Locke's death seems to negate this, but his purpose was to bring everyone to the island again, and it was his death that made this possible.
• Sayid died on the island
  • But he got better.
• Let's not forget that immortal and ageless are two different things. If the "rules" posted below are correct, Sayid was able to be killed by Roger because Roger was not gifted.
  • But Jack is gifted and Jack took responsibility for Sayid's death.

Jacob's Gift and the Rules

• The Rules seem to deal with Jacob's "Gift". According to these rules, Ben was never touched by Jacob, unless upon killing him, he touched him and was granted this gift.
  • Rule #1: A gifted individual is incapable of killing one's self.
    • Richard and Jack's "dynamite" scene. Jack not jumping off the bridge. John Locke not hanging himself.

• • Rule #2: A gifted individual is incapable of killing another gifted individual.
    • Sawyer and Jack's numerous fights. Jack's attempt to shoot Locke.
    • This would make Widmore and Ben "Gifted" -- From Widmore and Ben's conversation in Widmore's bedroom: "Benjamin, Did you come here to kill me?" Ben-"We both know I can't do that".
      • And if we are assuming Ben is gifted because of this conversation with Widmore, the problem lies in the fact that he was able to kill Locke, who, we are assuming, was also gifted.

• • Rule #3: The Man in Black cannot kill a gifted individual.
    • He is apparently not allowed to kill Sawyer for any reason.
    • He was explicitly reminded by the boy in the jungle that he could not kill Sawyer. To which he responded "Don't tell me what I can't do!" implying (a) his emphasis on free will and (b) his desire to bend/break the rules.
      • It is not explicit that the boy was talking about Sawyer.

• • Rule #4: The Man in Black cannot be killed by a gifted individual.
    • Sayid is incapable of killing him.
    • According to the candidates page, a "Linus" was on the list of candidates at one point. Assuming this was Ben, he may have been gifted. The interesting point to me is that his name is crossed out. As best as I can reconcile, that seems to relate to the fact that he left the island by turning the wheel. It was stated that if you turn the wheel, you can never ever come back. Perhaps that statement was just an inept attempt to keep people from returning to the island after turning the wheel because turning the wheel gives up one's candidacy. Ben's breaking the rules in returning was the actual loophole. He was one of Jacob's candidates who broke one of Jacob's rules and thus was able to act outside of the rules. He was the specific one that MiB had to manipulate. I've no idea how the intervening details may be explained within the Lost mythology, but this situation ties up a few plot points.
      • Linus may be referring to Ben's dad, Roger Linus. He's dead.

• All "giftees" are candidates (except possibly Richard?), but not all candidates are "giftees". Nothing says that a candidate has to be a "gifted" individual.

• Ben is "the LoopHole" because after he was shot by Sayid and Kate took him to the others to be saved, Richard told them that he will be different if successful, thus he would no longer be eligible to be a candidate , his gift/curse would be " the loopHole" being able to kill Jacob and or MIB.
  • Ben was the "Loop-hole" because he is a human being and a once potential candidate (linus written in cave and on wheel) that made the conscious decision to kill Jacob out of his own volition and free will. The loop-hole as it were is simply humans freedom of choice. which is why Jacob stated the fact to Ben just before he was stabbed. MIB couldn't kill Jacob directly but if a candidate chose to do so that person could. Ben is simply the one MIB has chose and been able to manipulate into doing so. Ben is the loophole, and as such can kill Jacob and/or MIB. This is why MIB went to such an elaborate end in convincing Ben to obey him.
• Miles tells Ben and Ilana that up until the moment Ben stabbed Jacob, Jacob hoped that he was wrong about Ben. This could very well mean that Ben was once a candidate and Jacob had potential plans to reinstate him as a candidate.

Ben, Roger and the Island (Flash sideways)

• Ben must have left the island before he got shot by Sayid, and most likely even before 1974. On the sub that left the island before the incident there were only women and children, but Ben left the island together with his father; and at the time the sub was leaving Ben was at the temple.
  • Sayid wasn't there to shoot him because 815 never crashed.
  • Ben was not at the temple, he was at camp with the Others, not that far from the barracks. During the events that followed Jack go through the tunnels, get the hydrogen bomb, have Sayid remove the bomb core, have the shootout at the barracks, have the fight with Sawyer, and the shootout at the Swan, Ben could have easily been returned to Dharma.
    • The timeline split still occurred with the incident in 1977. It actually makes sense Ben was returned to Dharma before the incident, as Richard may have returned from the expedition with Jack and Sayid, and ordered Ben returned knowing what was going to happen (H-bomb explosion) and knowing that an evacuation was occurring.
      • Ben can't get shot by Sayid on the Island in the FS timeline, because the plane doesn't crash, so Sayid isn't there to shoot him.
        • I can't believe all the arguing about the time paradoxes. A time paradox is just that - a paradox. There is no logical way to resolve them and have two events happen that prevent each other from happening. You guys will be going around in circles forever.
        • Of course Sayid would have been there to shoot him. All of them were there in both lines till DYN-O-MITE.
          • No no no, this is the whole point of the FS timeline, no one ever went back in time, Ben was never shot in this timeline, Richard never meat Locke in 1952 none of the time traveling ever occured. Only the events that could have occured without time travel can still occur in the FS.
            • If that's the case, then we don't know what caused the island to sink to the bottom of the ocean. In the case of the split occurring at The Incident in 1977, we can assume the H-bomb caused the island to sink.
            • We don't know what cause the island to sink.
            • The H-bomb was the trigger that caused the changes in the flash-sideways. The effects reach backward in time prior to 1977, because the Losties never came to the island and never time traveled to do things in the 50s, like Jinn didn't lead the French Science Team to the Radio tower. Starting from the Losties earliest interactions in the timeline, things are different. The Universe is making attempts to course correct itself, (so the same people are bumping into each other in the new timeline) but the changes are so big, things are still significantly different in 2004.--Notsam 19:32, March 11, 2010 (UTC)
            • Absolutely not, what happened happened. Prior to the incident, both timelines were one and the same. IF the effect reached before 1977, we'd have a looping paradox. Because if they can't travel back in 1977, they can't drop the bomb, so 815 crashes on the Island and they DO travel back in time, only to drop the bomb, so they can't travel back in 1977 = loop.
      • Young Ben was not shot on the island in the FST. If he was shot Roger would not have been so hopeful of his future there. If Ben was shot, there would be no doubt in Roger's mind that leaving was the right choice. Either they left before 1977 or somehow it unfolded differently and Sayid did not shoot young Ben.
        • Roger might not have known that Ben was taken to the Temple and healed...Ben could have been returned to him in a normal condition.
          • Roger saw Ben after he had been shot, when Kate gave blood to young Ben.
• The evacuation he left on could have happened after the "New Incident".
• This parallel time could just be a time without the actions of Jacob, therefore losties wouldn't have gone back in time to almost kill Benjamin, who went in to the Others side, and Ben would have been able to leave the island in the "New Incident" as the top theory says.
  • In this case, why the island sunk is put into question. It could've been a neglected Jughead that never went off, though the military in a non-Jacob timeline would've faced no opposition from hostiles. But, from Ben and his father's conversation, it would seem that the Dharma Initiative simply ran its course, and that's Ben's future could've been much brighter had they stayed while it was still active.
• Ben and Roger left shortly after they arrived. Roger was unable to accept that he was a workman and not doing anything to better the world.
  • Roger's attitude seemed radically different from either version of the past (original or the one where Jughead was detonated) previously shown. He seemed to genuinely regret having left the island, and spoke as though it was his choice to do so, not that they were evacuated. He implied that he left fairly soon after they had arrived.
• Roger left the island due to sickness. The island doesn't possess healing powers in the FS-Timeline.
• If this parallel time is a world without Jacobs actions, and as it seems the Others are Jacobs people; then in this parallel time the Others would not exist. Therefore, the experience of the Dharma Initiative was different, and lead to the sinking of the island.
  • While we don't know how the Island sank, we are shown that the D.I. were there, and so was the Statue. The Statue infers Jacob's presence, and while we're not certain the Island's mysterious properties are attributable to Jacob, we can be sure the D.I. would not have set up shop for their work unless the Island was indeed special. I think we're shown those 2 clues to reconcile that events we saw up to 1977 did transpire, regardless of when/how the Island sank in the FST. The real kicker hopefully is coming with Charles/Eloise's FST. Daniel had to 'happen' somehow.
  • The electromagnetic pocket was tapped and Jughead was not detonated therefore sinking the island.
• The island didn't sink right away, maybe it took a while to disappear giving time to the remaining dharmas and others to evacuate the island, so both Roger and Ben did escape alive.
• Young Ben was not shot on the island in the FST. If he was shot Roger would not have been so hopeful of his future there. If Ben was shot, there would be no doubt in Roger's mind that leaving was the right choice. Either they left before 1977 or somehow it unfolded differently and Sayid did not shoot young Ben.
  • While this is a good explanation of Roger's wistfulness, also remember that Ben's memory was wiped at the Temple. Roger could have seen Ben's unexplained return & healing as miraculous.

Counter argument to Ben Leaving before 1977

1. Dialogue from Dr. Linus demonstrates that Ben & Roger were on the island at some point & left.
2. Ethan Goodspeed exists in the FST; for him to be born required Sawyer to save his mother from the Others in 1974. Therefore Sawyer, Juliet, Miles & Faraday were on the island in 1974.
   • Ethan could have been born off the island anyay? We don't know;
     • Yes we do: "Ethan was born on the island in 1977 to Horace and Amy Goodspeed", What_Kate_Does-Enhanced_transcript
       • Ethan was born on the island in 1977 in the original timeline. We do not know if Ethan was born on/off island in the FST because the other character story differences makes Ethan's birthplace questionable eg. Locke being with Helen and having a good relationship with his father, Jack having a son, Nadia married to Sayid's brother.
   • "The others" as we know them aren't the others in the alternate timeline. Without the influence of Jacob they never went to the island and never became others. Ethan's mother didn't need to be saved.
     • In which case, her husband would still have been alive, she would never have married Horace Goodspeed & Ethan would never have been born.
   • If the timesplit occured well before 1974 then Ethan's mother might not even have been in need of rescue, so this proves nothing.
     • The word "might" here is crucial: A timesplit before 1974 requires an event. (which?) . Ethan cannot be born "Goodspeed" unless his mother is widowed or divorced and subsequently marries Horace. In the FST The island needs to sink. (What event does this?). This is a denial of a very tiny part of the evidence base by hypothesising vaguely a whole other theory which is never then developed. If this is a full theory, post it.
3. In 1977, Sawyer et. al are Joined by Jack et. al. Ben is on the island in that timeline.
4. If Ben & Roger leave before 1977, then there must be two islands: one with Ben, one without Ben; both must have have copies of Sawyer, Juliet, Miles & Faraday (see (1))
5. (Aside) Any theory which claims that Ben & Roger left before 1977, must account for (A) why they left, and (B) What event caused two timelines to come into existence.
6. The island with Ben on it must be the one which is the OT history, and which Ethan stays to capture Alex with Ben in 1989, with the 815 crash in 2004.
7. This means that the bomb can't have exploded on this island, and can't have been responsible for fracturing the timelines. Juliet was wrong.
8. This means that the other island, with no Ben, but with an Ethan, is the Flash-sideways.
9. Ethan has to leave this island, and the island ends up at the bottom of the sea.
10. (Aside) The theory requires an explanation of how and why Ethan left, as there is no Hurley to convince Miles to talk to Chang, and therefore no evacuation.
11. (Aside) The theory also requires an explanation of how the island came to be destroyed. Jack and Sayid are not there to get the bomb.

A Different Theoory about when timelines split

There is a possibility that the Losties arrival in the 1970s is what actually caused the split. Based on nearly every other interpretation of time travel in movies/television, the unifying principle is that if somthing, even the slightest thing, is altered in the past, it leads to a whole new future (See: Back to the Future, etc). This being the case, the moment the Losties time traveled to the 1970's, their presence created a fork in time. That being assumed, had they never arrived, Ethan would still have been born, but under different circumstances (remember that he is present in season 1, before any time travel has begun). Ben and Roger would have come to the Island, and subsequently left for some reason or another. It's far easier to assume that they left because Roger was a raging alcoholic and that Ben was never shot and revived, then to assume that FS Ben and Roger had experienced all the events from Season 5, yet talk to calmly about the Island over dinner. FS Ben does not seem to be a man who has experienced death and time travel; he is portrayed as far too timid. Therefore, because the Losties came into contact with the Dharma folks (and the Others) when they touched down in 1974(?), the split occurred and leads to the future we see in the OS. As for the bomb, we can assume a number of possibilities with regard to its detonation. It is possible that just prior to detonation, the Island flashed again, leading to a nother fork in the road which results in both the Island being undersea in one timeline, and present in another. It is also possible that the Island cannot BE destroyed (much like those who have been touched by Jacob cannot kill themselves), and the explosion simply caused a chasm in the time-space continuum, destroying that fork, but reverting the Island back to present time. Either way, it is safe to assume that Ben and Roger never experienced the Losties in their time on the Island, and the FS is the timeline that would have occurred had Jacob, FrankenLocke, Farraday, whomever, had never played with time travel.

Counter-argument

• When they time-travelled to the 1970's, they actually travelled to MANY different time periods, back and forth through the years, and witnessed and CAUSED a lot of different episodes of the past of the Island. For example, it was Faraday who suggested to the Others to bury the nuke under concrete, Jin met with the French expedition, and so on. If your theory is true, each of these short time-travels would have forked the timeline, so we might have a dozen or so alternative timelines. Actually there were 14 separate incidents. This would result in 2^14 = 16384 separate timelines.
• Just because the butterfly effect happens in another series does not mean the producers have adopted the same principle here. No character has ever mentioned the butterfly effect or chaos theory. One would have expected Faraday to trot this out as a matter of course but the fact that he hasn't means that this principle may not apply in the Lostverse. In fact we have evidence of precisely the opposite: Course Correction is the antithesis to the butterfly effect.
• In creating this scenario, entirely new back stories are needed to account for characters' actions. The text above does some hand waving asd to things that might be possible, but there is no evidence in the series that any of these "alternative events" either did occur or might have occurred. What Kate Does-Enhanced transcript says that FS Ethan was born on the island. Now you can say that this is non-canon, and invent a completely different story, but now the theory is not only inventing new material, it is flying in the face of what evidence there is.
• The theory goes on to speculate about the bomb creating another timeline; however the FS timeline has alread been created in this theory earlier. Now there are three timelines. Where is the evidence for this? It then starts to talk about it not being possible for the island to be destroyed; however how does that account for the island at the bottom of the ocean

Note: The theory was originally posted in an attempt to counter the counter-argument to "Ben left prior to 1977", i.e to posit why Ben could have left before this time. In simple terms, Ben either leaves during or after the events of the 1977 incident, or he doesn't. The evidence from the series is that at the time of the incident he was in the temple, and he could not have left before. In claiming this is not true, an entire set of proposals has been created, which themselves are speculative, most of which have no basis in the show, and in fact never provide an answer the question of why Ben might have left prior to 1977. This is a perfect example where Occam's Razor says that explanations have been mupltiplied beyond that which is necessary, and the convoluted theory is unsound.

Further discussion on a Possible Timeline Split

This theory is an update to this attempt at dating a possible split in the timeline, following the events of Dr. Linus. So far, the theory is:

• There was a single timeline existing up to "Fracture Point", after which the FS-Timeline & the original Timeline diverged.
• The Fracture Point occurred sometime during the period July 1977 to December 1978.

The updated version is that the bomb in The Incident, Part 2 both exploded and did not explode, causing a fracture in timelines. However, a secondary theory which claims that another incident (which occurred after July 1977, but before December 1978) was responsible for the fracture, is also consistent with the available evidence, and although seems less likely, cannot, as yet, be ruled out.

Please note:
As this is an ongoing theory, it assumes that the previous conclusions (stated above) are correct. Given that this is a theory, they may not be. However, please do not post material in the middle of this theory which disagrees with the two statements above, as the argument below is dependent upon them. If you wish to contest these statements, please do so either here or on the discussion page.

Evidence from Dr. Linus

• In Dr. Linus, Ben's father suggests that it was his decision to leave: "Imagine how our lives would have been if we'd stayed... Who knows what you would have become?" This certainly does not sound like a "forced evacuation", followed by the island being destroyed.

• Whether it was his decision or not, and in whatever timeline we are in, the island destruction must have occured after Ben & Roger left the island. If not, at least one of the Bens would be dead.

Evidence from earlier episodes:

• In Follow the Leader Ben was shot on Day 3 of the July 1977 time-travelling antics of Jack, Kate and Hurley, and taken to the temple. Shortly after that, in Dead is Dead, a recovering Ben meets Charles Widmore. It is unclear whether this is still Day 3, or Day 4. However, early in day 4, Pierre Chang organised the evacuation of all the DHARMA women and children from the Island, in preparation for the coming Incident. While the DHARMA Initiative was being evacuated and an emergency protocol was being established, Roger spotted Sayid and Jack on the barracks lawn, and shot him. The Incident, Part 1. Clearly at that time, Roger had not been reunited with Ben, and this was less than two hours prior to the events at the Swan site.
• Even so, it still remains a possibility that Ben was reunited with his father, and for some reason Ben's father was included in the evacuation (despite the "women & children" rule). There is supporting logic for this in that as a single father an clearly non-essential personnel, Roger would likely have accompanied his son off island.
• Roger must have been reunited with Ben, how else would he know Ben has been shot?

Ben and Roger cannot have left prior to the Chang Evacuation.

• Reason: If Roger and Ben left prior to the evacuation, this would be prior to Jack, Kate, Hugo & Sayid arriving in 1977. This means that Sayid would not have been released, he would not have shot Ben, and Roger would not have been there to shoot Sayid, and the events of The Incident, Part 2 would have played out very differently.

• Theory 1: The detonation of the H-bomb was the cause of the fracture in timelines, and the cause of the island's destruction. In both timelines Ben was evacuated, but in the FS timeline (bomb explodes) the island was destroyed, so he was never invited to return, but in the OT (bomb does not explode) he was invited to return, and so became the Ben we know. In both timelines, he was shot by Sayid, and doused in the temple pool. This explanation clearly fits with available evidence.
  • The OT 2004 crash timeline is a continuation of the 1977 'incident' timeline, in which Ben was shot, but in which the detonation of the bomb did not destroy the island, and in which Ben lived to become Leader.
  • In the Orignal timeline, although Ben & Roger left, they returned to the island after the evacuation scare. In this timeline Ben kills his father in the Purge.
  • In the FS Timeline, Roger and Ben left, but did not return to the island, and Ben becomes Dr.Linus, a History teacher. Given Roger's statements, it is extremely unlikely that Ben & Roger returned and then left again; they left, and sometime afterwards the island was destroyed.
• On the other hand, if Flight 815 doesn't crash in the FS timeline, then Sayid never comes to the Island, and he's not there to shoot Ben.

• Theory 2: The bomb detonation had no effect whatsoever on timelines, and the Fracture occured sometime prior to December 1978 (see above). This would mean that:
  • What happened to Ben & Roger must have been identical in both timelines up to the fracture.
  • They either left the island in the Chang evacuation, or left of their own volition sometime before December 1978.
  • From the evidence we have of events in the FST, it is highly unlikely that FS-Ben & Roger returned to the island at all, therefore certainly did not return prior to the Fracture
  • Therefore in the OT they cannot have returned prior to the Fracture either.
  • As the H-Bomb incident was a damp squib and had no effect, work continued on The Swan, and was completed early in 1978.
  • A separate "incident" occurred at The Swan shortly after it was built.(Evidence from the Swan Orientation video, says precisely this; the production date on this video was 1980).
  • It was this incident which was responsible for the fracture in timelines, creating one timeline in which the island was destroyed, and another in which a button needed to be pressed to "save the world"
  • In the "button-pressing" island (OT), Ben & Roger were invited back to the island, and accepted. In the other timeline (FST), the island had been destroyed and so they were not invited back.

Alternative Dating:

It could all be much simpler: both realities already existed before Ben got to the island; it is possible that Ben and his father exist in both realities same way as do Sun and Hurley, which are both born post-incident. So, Linuses left the island in one reality (where there were no time-travelers), and stayed in another reality. This would also explain how the incident was different in both time-lines; but will put the split point at much earlier date.

• This 'simpler' rendition seems to require: (1) A timeline split before 1974 which would require an event to trigger it, and an explanation of that event. (2) an explanation of why Linuses left in one timeline & not the other, (3) a whole raft of explanations about Ethan's parents still meeting without the intervention of the Losties, and (4) a full & coherent account of another, later event occuring in the FST which sinks the island, but which does not occur in the OT. Occam's razor would seem to suggest that the explanation "In 1977, Jughead exploded, fractured the timelines, and sank the island." offers a way of interpreting the facts without creating additional issues: "plurality should not be posited without necessity".

FST is actually a reset triggered by an upcoming event during series finale. Something will happen in the series finale which will rewind to some point in history. I'm guessing we will eventually see everybody off island with the exception of Desmond due to his peculiar disappearance off 815 in season opener. Everybody lives their lives based on their decisions made on the Island, some good, some bad. i.e. Sayid chose to give in to the "darkness" so he is cursed to live his life in front of his true love, but unable to have her. Jack will choose to give himself to the "light" and in turn will be given the opp0rtunity to forgive his father through his actions with his son.

• Alternative View: It is at least 1954 when the "fracture point" occurred. If there is a "fracture point", it happens before any of the losties interventions took place, which is in 1954, when time-jumpers stumble upon others' camp. Losties can't be present in the history of the island because we actually see that 815 doesn't crash so there's no way for them to be part of the chain of events which led to the time-jumping. So it is pretty clear that there was no-one to advise the others to bury Jughead in the first place. Because as far the island is on the bottom of the ocean in 2004 Widmore can't send Faraday to the island. No Faraday on the island in 2004 = no Faraday on the island in 1954 = Jughead is not buried. Or if we assume it is actually buried anyway (though for the sake of this argumentation it doesn't matter) it must be someone else figuring this out. And so it is at least 1954 when the "fracture point" is situated in time. Although we can even assume that the differences in the timelines go even further (actually back in time) because losties left their mark in earlier times (when they left a rope going into the ground at the well location).

Candidates

• Ilana said that there were six candidates remaining. These are: The numbers 8 (Reyes), 15 (Ford), 16 (Jarrah), 23 (Shepherd), 42 (Kwon) and 51 (Austen). (So Kate is a candidate). Locke is excluded as she knows he is dead. One of these may need to be excluded if Kwon is two separate candidates. However as she knows Sayid murdered the Temple leader and made a point of having details of Sayid's involvement, also Sayid has been dead so Sayid is also excluded from the list. This leaves Reyes, Ford, Shepherd, Kwon and Austen. That is either 5 or 6 candidates. There is no reason to think Ford is excluded as Ilana is unaware of his actions or whereabouts (as are we) and we have no evidence as to his exclusion either. Traveling with MiB has not been shown anywhere as a point of exclusion. (If it is - one of the Kwons is out too, and Austen etc)
  • The 6th candidate is the unknown person with an uncrossed surname in the Lighthouse (#60 Kysea.)

• Ilana is speaking based on out-of-date information. Jacob is dead so she can't communicate with him, & the MiB who is her enemy would hardly share anything he knew.
  • Kate is not a candidate because her name is crossed out in the cave and when Ilana arrived at the temple she asked about the whereabouts of all the other candidates, but not Kate, suggesting she doesn't consider Kate a candidate.
    • Kate's name is crossed out in the cave, but not in the lighthouse.
      • Ilana is getting her information (erroneously?) from the cave rather than from Jacob's Lighthouse.
      • Ilana, like Jacob, is protecting the information that Kate is a candidate.

• The candidate listed as #108: Wallace (to this point an unknown character) is the 6th candidate.
  • Wallace was crossed off meaning he/she is no longer a candidate Jacob did not care about turning to 108 he just wanted Jack to see his house

• Lapidus, Miles, Sun, Jack, Reyes and Linus. Ilana is only talking about the candidates to replace Jacob, considering she is his body guard. Anyone who has been brought to the island is a candidate, the conversation with Lapidus hints that if the island wants you then it is eventually going to get you. Because Illana is only concerned with replacing Jacob, there are only six candidates within her/Jacob's camp: Lapidus, Miles, Sun, Jack, Reyes and Linus.

• Ilana's six candidates are: Jack, Sawyer, Hurley, Sayid, Jin, and Sun. She is counting both Jin and Sun, since she doesn't know which one Kwon refers to. Though it seems reasonable that Sayid is no longer a candidate due to his infection, there really hasn't been anything clearly stated that indicates this makes him no longer a candidate.

• Reyes, Shepherd, Kwon, Austen, and two unknowns are still candidates. One of the unknowns is Rose Nadler. (unsupported)

• Since Ilana hasn't been really up to date on a lot of the information, the six candidates she is referring to could just be the Oceanic Six. She's not the one making the judgment calls about who is or isn't a candidate; she has only been tasked with protecting them. So she wouldn't be ruling out Sayid or Kate or any of the other questionable ones based on her own personal judgments.

• There are six candidates, but not all for Jacob. The six, Jack, Sawyer, Hurley, Sayid, Jin, and Sun will be split between Jacob and the MiB. As far as we know, Sawyer, Sayid, and possibly Jin have gone to the MiB. Jack, Hurley, and Sun are all with Jacob.

• The six candidates that Ilana has to protect are the six of the people on the beach at the end of the episode besides herself. Jack, Hurley, Richard, Sun, Miles, and Lapidus. It is not known if Lapidus has been touched by Jacob, so perhaps Ben is even one of the six. Miles may very well have been touched by Jacob. Despite his "punk" appearance in Some Like It Hoth, he physically appears to be the same as in Dr. Linus. Hearing dead people could also be considered a gift.

Widmore

• Widmore has come to join forces with MIB and end his feud with Ben by killing him. Widmore convinced Locke to return to the island because MIB needed his body. MIB was trying to lure Ben to the Hydra island because Widmore was going to kill him there. It is actually Widmore who will once again protect/control the island after MIB leaves.
• Widmore was exiled by Jacob, according to Ben, for having a family (Penny) off the island. Also, Widmore told Locke he must return to the island or the wrong side would win. Therefore Widmore is on MIB's team. MIB plans to leave on Widmore's sub.
• The sub is heading to the Hydra island. We know of 4 groups on the island. He is not coming to see Bernard and Rose on their beach front property. He is not going to the beach camp because he said in the sub not to stop there. Equally you can rule out the temple because everyone is dead there. This leaves the Hydra island as the destination for the sub.
  • He could be headed to the dock on the main island. And then likely to the other island.
• Widmore has no allegiance with MIB. His only enmity is with Ben. Ben attempted to kill Penny and killed Abaddon. Widmore is here for payback. But Ben and Widmore too are playing by rules.
• Widmore is the "friend" that Jacob told Hurley was coming to the Island when he assigned to him the Lighthouse mission.

Richard ask not to believe Jacob

• Richard doesn't know that Smoke Monster cannot change it's shape again, so he suspect that Hugo saw MiB instead of Jacob.
• Richard says not to believe Jacob because he has recently become so disenfranchised by the current events (Jacob dieing, MIB taking control, Temple people being murdered) So Richard, now leaderless, purposeless, direction-less, and suicidal, says to hurley "not to believe what jacob says" out of frustration and depression because he currently believes listening to Jacob got him no where. These seem to be a perfectly reasonable emotions and actions from a person in this state and thus there is no need to find other theories about this one statement. Some times people in these theory pages think too way!! to hard.
• Richard knows that Jacob is dead and cannot comeback in any shape or form. The Jacob that Hurley sees is actually MIB or his own hallucinations. What Richard might be unaware that the island may have chosen its leader already which is Jack.

Paradigm Shift: Faith versus Science

This episode marks various noteworthy paradigm shifts.

• Richard has lost his faith, Jack has (finally) discovered faith (sitting next to a burning dynamite stick and assuming it will not explode is an unscientific behaviour requiring a lot of faith). Thus the scientific Jack restores to some extent the faith Richard has lost.
• Benjamin finally has a chance to show true repentence and regret, causing Ilana to forgive rather than to execute him

In contrast, the Man of Black in the shape of the formerly faithful Locke, could now be considered a negative representative of "science": He claims to have all the answers and to be the only one able to provide people with what they need or want. He doesn't ask for "faith" (further developments should turn out to be very interesting).

This could turn out to be the big excuse of the authors. You know, having all the answers is bad:). But on a serious note, lets take look at Lost in a Hegelian way: You have a Jack with a thesis that there is no fate and higher purpose. Then he changes his mind, he accepts the antihesis presented by Jacob, that fate is real and some things are meant to happen. The paradigm should shift once more, creating a synthesis of the two. How will that be represented within the story is hard to tell, but my guess is, it will have something to do with Kate(torn between Jack in the Jacob team and Sawyer in the MIB team).

Jacob and Fate

• While Ben is digging his grave he makes a quip about Jacob not caring for him. Miles responds with "Right up until the second the knife went through his heart, he was hoping he was wrong about you. I guess he wasn't." This indicates that Jacob doesn't entirely believe in fate. He was hoping he was wrong, in that Ben would make the choice that Jacob didn't expect. If Ben were to make a fated choice, then Jacob would fully expect and know him to pick the option to kill him. If he felt that he could be wrong about Ben, then he is admitting that Ben does have a completely free choice in the matter.
• Jacob knows the final fate of people, but he doesn't know the events leading up to it. His statement about Ben says that he knows he is going to die, but was hoping that perhaps Ben wasn't the one who would be responsible for his death.
• The whole point of Miles' statement was just to make the audience (and the candidates) aware that Jacob did care for Ben, and therefore Richard and all the other candidates as well.

A Theory Accounting For Course Correction

Someone that is not myself noticed that stick figures holding pistols are featured on pillars in the statue. This would lead me to assume that the characters of season 6 will be sent back to the ancient island. If that is the case, then in order for the universe to course correct, anyone who went back and caused the chain of events that led up top 815 and season 6 would have to survive and wouldn't be able to kill their selves. Richard and Jack couldn't blow up with the dynamite because they have things to do to lead up to whatever timeflash scenario spawned this tangled web of course correction. Christian told Michael "you can go now" because he had done what he needed to in order to insure the events at the climax of the series and genisis of the events on the island. Desmond's visions were the universe preventing Charlie's death so that he could turn off the blinking light. Which brings me to a conclusion about Jacob's list. The list is of the people who have yet to do something that will lead to the final time flash. Once your name is off the list you have done your part and can die at any time. Mikhail survived miraculously because he had to kill Charlie, because Charlie survived the crash only to kill Ethan, because Ethan survived only because Juliet tampered with things by delivering him when he would have otherwise died. Locke survived being shot in the Dharma hole because he still had work to do, which is exactly what Walt told him. people touched by Jacob are blessed because jacob, being a time traveler, can't die until he does his part in the course-correction, and interacting with jacob tangles you in the web of course-correction and you have a role to play. I myself subscribe to the idea that jacob is Aaron and if you know anything about mythological symbolism and the use of connotation instory-telling it couldn't be anymore obvious. This last time flash will artistically unite everything in the series and reveal itself as both beginning and end.

• Let's hope so...